Brazil 2 Essay Research Paper On January

Brazil 2 Essay, Research Paper On January 12, 1999, over a billion dollars fled Brazil. Three yearss subsequently, the Central Bank attempted to convey about a limited devaluation of the Brazilian currency, the existent, but it failed to forestall a free autumn. Over the following two yearss, another $ 3 billion was pulled out, and by the terminal of the month, the existent had lost over 40 per centum of its value. The Central Bank president resigned, his replacement lasted a hebdomad, and as bad onslaughts continued, President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, in some despair, sought out one of international moneyman George Soros # 8217 ; s closest associates, Arminio Fraga, for the occupation. Fraga used to pull off a fund that took stakes on macroeconomic alterations, such as currency devaluations in topographic points like Brazil. It was, as the Brazilian imperativeness pointed out, a instance of seting the fox among the poulets. The mentality for 1999 is inexorable. Brazil is confronting a deep recession and a return of rising prices ; go oning volatility in the value of its currency ; a political cat battle over financial reform statute law in Congress ; acute emphasis in the relationship between the federal authorities and the provinces ; the hazard of defaults on province and federal authorities debt every bit good as in the private sector ; and astronomic and unsustainable involvement rates. For Brazil # 8217 ; s spouses in Mercosurthe common market that joins Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil-its dip into recession and the quantum spring in the monetary value of their ain exports in the Brazilian market ( particularly for Argentina, which has locked its ain currency into a one-to-one relationship with the U.S. dollar by agencies of a currency board ) has put tremendous strains on the fledgling trade axis. Other Latin American authoritiess worried that investors would non distinguish between Brazil and the remainder of the part, decelerating down entree to the foreign capital needed to run into their ain adoption demands. The remainder of the universe grew fearful of # 8220 ; contagion. # 8221 ; For the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and the U.S. Treasury ( and finally the American taxpayer ) , which gambled in November 1998 that a immense $ 41.5 billion bundle of many-sided aid for Brazil would prolong the value of the existent, the realisation began to d rop in that, as with Russia, good money might good hold been dropped one time once more into yet another bottomless cavity. The Fall from Grace How did Brazil acquire into this sorry province? Who or what was to fault? The autumn from grace was dramatic, to state the least. Merely a twelvemonth earlier, this huge South American state of 167 million people, with the universe # 8217 ; s eighth largest economic system, had seemed steadfastly set on the way to a more comfortable, modern, and even just hereafter. It was led by a linguist, internationally minded leader of high intelligence who was hailed in European capitals and in Washington as the original of the new Latin American leader who would draw the part steadfastly into the new universe envisioned by the # 8220 ; Washington consensus # 8221 ; -a universe of free trade, unfastened markets, privatized province corporations, and booming democracies. Get downing in late 1994, Brazil had broken the old form of hyperinflation by the adept debut of a new currency-the real-which was tied to the U.S. dollar but allowed to fluctuate within a narrow set. The immediate positive effects were rapidly felt by the Brazilian population, particularly those who lived precariously on the border of destitution. For the first clip in decennaries hapless people had hard currency in their pockets that retained its value, and could non merely purchase more nutrient but besides consumer goods. The impudent side of this rose-colored image was heavy adoption on the international fiscal markets- # 8221 ; external nest eggs # 8221 ; as the economic experts put it with Orwellian bewilderment. Brazil was non entirely in this game, since it was an built-in portion of the new equation whereby the liquidness of planetary capital flows made such shortage financing extremely profitable. Brazil was, after all, now an # 8220 ; emerging market, # 8221 ; and a really large one at that. It was no longer # 8220 ; 3rd universe # 8221 ; or # 8220 ; underdeveloped # 8221 ; or even # 8220 ; developing, # 8221 ; much less a state with a history, establishments, and a immature democracy agitating off the bequest of two decennaries of autocratic regulation. To money directors in New York, London, and Frankfurt, and progressively Madrid and Lisbon, it was a topographic point where bad investing promised double-digit returns. Financing shortages of one type or another, and at all degrees of the domestic economic system, every bit good as prolonging the instability in external payments was what everyone did with the foreign capital thrown at them-Brazilians no less than Indonesians. But in the existent economic system itself, a strong Brazilian currency made Brazilian exports expensive and beguiled the Brazilian authorities into complacence in the one country in which it needed to acquire its house in order rapidly if the state was to prolong the new economic theoretical account over the long draw: its chronic inability to roll up sufficient grosss to cover outgos at the federal, province, and municipal degrees, and its every bit dramatic inability to incorporate outgos on forces, pensions, and politically divine porc. So long as the universe did non look excessively closely at the inside informations all was good, but when the Asiatic crisis hit, and Russia defaulted, the flow of easy money dried up nightlong. In the immediate wake of the Russian crisis, Brazil spoke tough words about financial reform, and for a clip Wall Street and the U.S. Treasury were tranquilized. But Brazil did non present. In fact, it did the antonym. President Cardoso had changed the fundamental law in 1997 so that he could seek an unprecedented 2nd term. And with elections in the offing, shortages escalated as politicians at all degrees made certainly that if a president could be reelected, so could they. Postponing the Crisis The U.S. Treasury-to which policy with regard to Latin America had been mostly ceded by the State Department-unsurprisingly saw the suave Cardoso, and non the gruff brotherhood leader Luiz Inacio Lula district attorney Silva, as its presidential campaigner of penchant in Brazil. And with the fiscal markets spooked by renewed frights about the wellness of the international fiscal system, it took the lead in crafting a mega-package of IMF support merely as the electoral run in Brazil reached its flood tide last October. The U.S. Congress was at the clip preoccupied with Iraq and the at hand impeachment of President Clinton, something an anon. U.S. Treasury functionary noted with some alleviation at the clip. But the crisis was postponed, non eliminated. In order to keep capital flight after the Russian fiasco in August 1998, Brazil had raised involvement rates to 40 per centum a twelvemonth. With shortages go oning, this served to balloon duties at all degrees, public and private. Legislation was already on the books to compel the province governors and city managers to populate within their agencies, but it had non been enforced. The colossal duties accumulated by the terminal of 1998 included involvement on public debt that was three times higher than entire direct foreign investing for that twelvemonth. Social security payments in 1998 amounted to more than twice the amount the authorities received from denationalizations. And the $ 25 billion that disappeared from its militias between August and October 1998 were three times what Brazil earned in exports over the same period. There is another spot of history the IMF seems to hold neglected to notice: Brazil # 8217 ; s record of conformity with IMF understandings is abysmal. Six Brazilian presidents have signed six IMF understandings since the late fiftiess. Not one of them was fulfilled. In the Mexican bailout of 1994, the IMF money was collateralized with crude oil grosss. The recent Brazilian bailout was collateralized with promises. This was non merely a # 8220 ; moral hazard. # 8221 ; It was obviously dense. The effects of the loss of cardinal secret agents on whom President Cardoso had relied for political clout and economic expertness besides became distressingly evident as the twelvemonth ended. The unexpected deceases over the old months of both his prime intimate and political influence peddler, Sergio Motta, the communications curate ( a key place in the authorities because of the megaprivatization of the telecommunications sector in 1998 ) , and of Luiz Eduardo Magalhaes, the authorities # 8217 ; s whip in the lower house of Congress, robbed Cardoso of his eyes and ears, every bit good as two really large sticks. Luiz Eduardo was the favourite boy of the powerful president of the Senate, Antonio Carlos Magalhaes, and progressively was seen as Cardoso # 8217 ; s heir apparent. ( The younger Magalhaes had the support of his ambitious, doting, and, if need be, ruthless father, a factor that would hold contained the challenges from other politicians looking toward the presidential e lection in 2002. ) The economic squad had blown apart as old friends in and outside the authorities were caught on tape in a bugging dirt trading inside chitchat about denationalization commands. In mid-January 1999, two hebdomads after Cardoso # 8217 ; s 2nd startup, the speculators returned with a retribution and the long-feared crisis erupted with ruinous effects. By the terminal of the month, Brazil had lost in capital flight more than it had gained in promised budget cuts. The first tranche of the IMF expense of $ 9.32 billion released in December equaled the sum of exposure to Brazil the large U.S. money centre Bankss had cut back since the program was announced, and Brazil, non surprisingly, was back at the trough seeking more money with a new set of promises. But with confusion reigning in Brasilia, this clip President Cardoso found really few who would accept his words at face value. Disquieted squads of IMF technocrats arrived to concentrate over the books and seek more budget cuts and higher involvement rates: the old expression that had helped intensify the crisis in the first topographic point. Cardoso put the challenge bluffly in private remarks to his advisers: # 8220 ; If this bundle of asceticism steps is non approved, the authorities, I, you, and the Congress will be in the rubbish bin within six months. # 8221 ; All Was Ashes During the tallness of the terror in January, President Cardoso, borrowing from Winston Churchill # 8217 ; s celebrated wartime exhortation, radius of the demand for # 8220 ; blood, perspiration, and tears. # 8221 ; Later, it became evident that Brazilian Bankss had made more net income in January than had the whole Brazilian banking system over the old twelvemonth. Elio Gaspari, the Brazilian political editorialist, pointed out that non merely had President Cardoso forgotten to add Sir Winston # 8217 ; s name to # 8220 ; difficult work, # 8221 ; but that he could besides hold evoked another Churchillianism to explicate what had happened that month in Brazil: neer before had so much been given by so many to so few in so short a clip. The Brazilian population # 8217 ; s choler that the existent program had collapsed is non hard to explicate. Brazil # 8217 ; s recent history is littered with failed economic plans and derelict currencies. Brazilians had hoped against all hope that this clip the existent was for existent. Even its name was now an insult. And Brazil had had more than its just portion of political letdowns as good. Tancredo Neves, Brazil # 8217 ; s first civilian president since the military putsch of 1964, indirectly elected by Congress in 1985, was a hardy figure of the resistance to the military government. But he died of bosom failure before he was inaugurated and was succeeded by his frailty president, Jose Sarney, a politician who had long supported the military government in Congress. The first straight elected president, Fernando Collor de Mello, who was elected in 1990 with high hopes of overhauling Brazil, was tripped up by the deep-rooted wonts of the little backward province he came from. He was impeached in a corruptness dirt and succeeded in 1992 by his frailty president, the fickle Itamar Franco. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who was foremost elected to the presidential term in October 1994, had sought his 2nd term on the footing of the existent program # 8217 ; s success. Now all was ashes. Having been reelected to the presidential term merely three months before with over 50 per centum of the ballot, Cardoso saw his blessing evaluation in the polls bead below 22 per centum by the terminal of January 1999. Many perceivers have been speedy to impute the Brazilian crisis to # 8220 ; politics. # 8221 ; Certainly there is a big portion of political relations involved, as in any democracy. But to impute the failure to politics entirely handily avoids the more hard inquiries about the sustainability of the economic theoretical account itself. Nor did the obstructions Brazil faces in implementing reform Begin with the January moratorium on debt payments by the province of Minas Gerais declared by its governor, Itamar Franco, the former Brazilian president. It was as Franco # 8217 ; s finance curate that Cardoso had introduced the existent program in 1994. Franco had long been irritated that Cardoso got all the recognition, some of which he felt he deserved. The personal hostility was existent, but on taking office, Franco found that 80 per centum of his grosss were needed for province wages, 33.8 per centum for active and retired pensions, and 12.5 per centum on debt payments -for a sum of over 126 per centum of expected income. At least 13 other provinces were in similar passs, including several of the most of import 1s under resistance governors. Minas Gerais, Brazil # 8217 ; s third most of import province in footings of its economic system and one of the most of import in footings of its political relations, therefor e faced a crisis in its histories that many other major Brazilian provinces besides faced. The difference was that Itamar Franco put a really confrontational spin on his default because he resented President Cardoso and had been humiliated by him, and saw nil to derive by adjustment when confrontation would impel him back into the spotlight. Ironically, Franco was nominally a member of the alliance of parties that supposedly supported Cardoso # 8217 ; s disposal. More softly, Olivio Dutra, the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil # 8217 ; s 2nd largest province in economic footings, who is a member of the resistance Worker # 8217 ; s Party, obtained an injunction from the Supreme Court leting him to put his debt to the federal authorities in escrow and avoid being declared # 8220 ; in arrears, # 8221 ; which would trip the impounding of federal transportations to his province. Therefore, when all the governors except Franco met with Cardoso at the terminal of February, the president was obliged to acknowledge that their state of affairs was unstable and needed federal support. Federal-state tensenesss were in fact bound to break out in early 1999, given the chronic status of province authorities fundss. But this is besides an old narrative that resurrects a potentially unsafe struggle. The flux between cardinal and regional power has marked Brazilian history since the early 19th century, and it is a critical constituent of the current crisis. Brazilian cardinal authoritiess have frequently been required to pacify the formidable involvements of the parts, and policymaking in Brazil, even at the best of times, is at its nucleus a complicated dialogue over the distribution of resources between the centre and the powerful province foremans. Brazil is a complex state, larger than the immediate United States, with strong regional power centres, an entrenched bureaucratism, and legal and administrative systems with a formidable tradition of corporative self-defense. Party association has been less of import at the national degree than the entree to the power and resources that a congressional or senatorial place brings with it. Brazilian political parties lack subject and trueness, and the particular involvement groups-whether they be bankers, rural landholders, pensionaries, evangelicals, or civil servants-tend to back up single senators and congresswomans instead than parties, which are decrepit organized at the national degree and to a great extent dependent on backing at the province degree. This state of affairs is farther aggravated by the immense dimensions of electoral territories -covering full states-which makes runs really expensive, even by U.S. criterions. By the late eightiess, for case, successful congressional campaigners in Sao Paulo were passing on mean $ 600,000 per place. In that same period in the United States, successful congressional campaigners were passing $ 393,000. Given this world, the popularity of Brazil’s president is critical to his ability to obtain consequences in Congress. An unpopular president, or a feeble duck president, rapidly loses authorization. President Cardoso is both a feeble duck and profoundly unpopular. Not a healthy state of affairs in a clip of crisis. The Transition Game In the past decennary and a half, Brazil moved off from one of Latin America # 8217 ; s longest periods of military regulation ; but its passage from military to civilian regulation came approximately through a procedure of dialogue instead than rupture. Many of the civilian politicians who cooperated with the armed forces during their 21 old ages of regulation moved seamlessly into the more pluralistic system established after 1985 and were cardinal participants in the authorship of Brazil # 8217 ; s 1988 Constitution. While the 1988 Constitution enshrined many societal and political rights, it besides retained, at the insisting of the military and powerful regional oligarchs who had benefited from military regulation, a cardinal instability in which the more traditional, more rural provinces of the North and nor-east were overrepresented to the hurt of the more developed industrialised provinces of the South and sou-east, where the chief political resistance to the military autho ritiess had ever existed. The 1988 Constitution besides provided protections to administrative officials and the organized or corporative sectors of society, doing administrative reform hard and supplying extraordinary benefits to those entrenched within the authorities setup in a state where 1000000s still lived in low poorness and the distribution of income was among the worst in the universe. The postmilitary fundamental law became a Christmas tree of entitlements. It besides mandated the distribution of revenue enhancement grosss off from the centre to the provinces. The provinces, because they could utilize their deputations in Congress to barricade efforts to command extra outgos and compel the federal authorities to absorb the costs of turn overing over their debts, faced few obstructions to a monolithic escalation of outgos with small respect for their ability to cover these outgos from their ain resources. The formidable alterations Brazil was sing with urbanisation, greater political engagement, and wider entree to instruction and to the media and engineering were at the same time giving a voice to progressively larger sectors of the Brazilian population. And as new voices emerged in the more pluralistic environment of the mid1980s and 1990s, the political game became even more complicated and more ideological, with freshly independent brotherhoods, spiritual groups, autochthonal motions, adult females # 8217 ; s organisations, environmental militants, a powerful and more critical imperativeness, and a formidable motion of landless rural workers all stimulating civil society and disputing the old oligarchic manner of determination devising and political representation. Therefore, the crisis that hit at the beginning of 1999 resulted from the convergence of three developments: the load of the province setup and its rigidnesss ; the jussive moods of the political calendar ; and a unsafe exposure to external conditions. The 1988 Fundamental law, because it had incorporated such a high grade of specificity on societal every bit good as political rights, made policy inquiries, which in other political systems could be resolved by statute law, weighty affairs of constitutional amendment, thereby puting really high barriers to governmental reform by necessitating a cumbrous procedure of constitutional alteration. This involved achieving two back-to-back 60 per centum ballots in each house of Congress, virtually guaranting holds in the passage of any steps for which seasonableness was indispensable, and doing any such steps highly dearly-won for the authorities in footings of the Equus caballus trading needed to roll up sufficient ballots to go through the amendments. The unmanageable procedure led necessarily to the usage of # 8220 ; probationary steps, # 8221 ; mechanisms retained in the 1988 Constitution # 8217 ; s Article 62 at the insisting of the military and its Alliess during the passage from autocratic regulation. Under this article, the president could enforce steps with the force of jurisprudence for a 30-day period. The existent program itself was implemented by these agencies. In theory, probationary steps could be rejected if Congress did non go through enabling statute law within 30 yearss. In pattern, presidents merely reissued them. The stoping in 1995 of # 8220 ; indexation, # 8221 ; by which wages had been adjusted at the terminal of each month to the rising prices index of the old month and which contributed mightily to Brazil # 8217 ; s hyperinflation, was besides achieved by agencies of a # 8220 ; probationary step # 8221 ; reissued 47 times. In his first three old ages in office, in fact, President Cardoso issued 1,800 probationary steps, including 1,698 reissued edicts. Merely 90 were transformed into jurisprudence. This made Congress progressively determined to deprive the president of such powers in any revising of the fundamental law itself. This means that the tradeoff for simplifying the fundamental law, which all agree is indispensable to do the system map more expeditiously, will be necessarily marked by attempts to deprive the Brazi lian president of the very constitutional mechanisms that had made possible any forward advancement at all over the past decennary. The intractableness of societal security reform encapsulates the jobs of outgos and particular involvement authorizations. To give but two sensitive and politically explosive illustrations: The military contributes R $ 100 million to societal security yearly, while military benefits cost R $ 7.2 billion. In the metropolis of Sao Paulo, pensions absorb two-fifths of the public safety budget. The military constabulary of the metropolis entirely have 35,000 pensionaries, one for every two work forces on active responsibility. With 53 functioning colonels, the metropolis supports 100 retired colonels roll uping pensions. Chronic Insecurity and Public Order But to cut outgos such as this, in a state of affairs where most Brazilians already face chronic insecurity, can be really unsafe to public order. In late 1997, sometimes violent constabulary work stoppages erupted in several Brazilian provinces, including in Alagoas, where the constabulary had been unpaid for over seven months by the belly-up local disposal. The mean authorities pension is eight times higher than private-sector pensions. And those received by sitting congresswomans are 30 times higher on norm than what the mean pensionary receives. Pensioners, in fact, organize the largest anteroom in Congress. Therefore, the power to paralyse the disposal of authorities prevarications to the full in the custodies of those who most benefit from this state of affairs and have the most to lose by its reform. Federal civil retainers, who contribute R $ 3.3 billion yearly, be the system R $ 12.8 billion a twelvemonth. The state of affairs at the province degree is small better. The provinces spend on norm 30 per centum of their paysheets on inactive and retired workers and lasting partners. Not surprisingly, the cutbacks in pension payments promised to the IMF-a mere R $ 3 billion in 1999-are derisory in face of the degree of debt and unfunded duties in the societal security system. As if these rigidnesss were non plenty, the timetable of political relations besides made reform surety to the electoral calendar. President Cardoso had succeeded in altering the fundamental law so that he could run for a 2nd back-to-back term-a traditi on even the military swayers had neer attempted to alterbut this mortgaged reform to political aspiration. Cardoso # 8217 ; s statement was that reform could expect the 2nd authorization when it would be his primary aim. The job was that any hold in steming the financial hemorrhaging of the province became highly expensive once the demand to retain # 8220 ; investor assurance # 8221 ; became paramount. This required that Brazil pay astronomical involvement rates to keep capital flight in the self-contradictory belief that this would prolong the strong belief among aliens that it retained the ability to serve its debts, something the inordinate involvement rates made progressively improbable. This critical factor was masked non merely in the IMF plan itself but besides in the coverage on the concern pages, which spoke about switching primary shortages into excesss without quantifying what this entailed or ciphering what the involvement on these authorities adoptions involved. But involvement, more than per centums, was a key to the intensifying crisis. The load of debt rapidly attained unsustainable degrees. Yet because of the planetary crisis of liquidness and the hazards it posed, the fiction that all was good in Brazil needed to be sustained, and it was-at least until the planetary system could be inoculated against the possible impact of a Brazilian clang and President Cardoso was safely reelected. Time magazine put Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin, and Lawrence Summers on its January 27, 1999 screen, proclaiming these # 8220 ; Three Marketeers # 8221 ; as the work forces who # 8220 ; had saved the world. # 8221 ; Possibly the editors meant Wall Street. Surely the U.S. edition of Time contained non a word of describing from most of the universe South and E of Manhattan, where that message of rescue might hold seemed hollow at best. The Fiction Is Over What are the hazards now that the fiction is over? The section of the population that is most threatened by a return of rising prices and recession are the 19 million people who during the mid-1990s, deriving from the stableness brought approximately by the existent program, had moved into the emerging lower in-between category. As electors, many of these people provided solid support for President Cardoso # 8217 ; s reelection. But they excessively had became hooked on recognition, much of it linked in the little print to the dollar. They are the most vulnerable to the new state of affairs, and the most volatile. An acute battle over land and belongings has been developing on the rural frontiers for over a decennary. Here, the landless rural workers motion comprises the most organized and radicalized sections of the Brazilian population. Rural workers have long claimed that Cardoso # 8217 ; s policies were unsustainable. Industrial workers have been under force per unit area since 1995, the inundation of imports and the consolidation of the fabrication sector holding forced many out of stable employment into the informal sector. The brotherhoods, fearful of arousing more occupation losingss in the face of worsening chances have preferred dialogue over confrontation, but this excessively could alter. Brazil is besides a state where over a million people seek to come in the work force each year-they will hold minimum chances in the foreseeable future-a serious long-run job for an economic system that needs rapid growing if it is to both absorb workers and vie in an progressively competitory universe market. On all these counts, Brazil will fall behind in the new planetary economic system, non leap frontward as many had hoped. At the terminal of 1998, unemployment in greater Sao Paulo stood at an all-time high of 18.3 per centum. It can merely acquire worse in the face of a contraction of the economic system and the intensifying recession. Bankruptcies and defaults will be ineluctable in both the populace and private sectors. It is hard to see where the federal authorities in peculiar can cut farther, since its ability to utilize financial agencies is limited by political and societal restraints, and its pecuniary policy is hostage to the domestic debt load. The secondary market in province and municipal securities, valued at some R $ 9 billion, came to a practical arrest in February, as an increasing figure of authoritiess in all countries of Brazil failed to pay their duties on adulthood. The decrease of the stock of dollars in the commercial bank caissons threatens Brazilian importers and companies with abroad committednesss, which are estimated to be $ 13.5 billion for the first one-fourth of 1999 alone. The current history shortage reached about $ 35 billion for 1998 despite the $ 9.32 billion initial payment from the IMF bundle. Brazil # 8217 ; s external funding demands in 1999 are estimated to be in the part of $ 52 billion. With the 2nd tranche of $ 9 billion due in March 1999, this will intend that about 44 per centum of the IMF bundle has already been committed. The state # 8217 ; s entire foreign debt interim stands at over $ 230 billion, and its domestic public debt, as of this authorship, in March 1999, exceeds R $ 500 billionroughly equal to the entire buying power of the 28 million households that make up the Brazilian center and lower center classesand is lifting rapidly due to the expensive involvement that must be paid. Almost 20 per centum of this debt is dollar linked, and 70 per centum must pay nightlong rates. This barbarous rhythm means that a one per centum point rise in the involvement rate-and the IMF wanted the involvement rates to lift to 70 percent-forces the authorities to presume an excess R $ 1-2 billion in debt service costs. It is non hard to see the clefts already seeable at the province degree rapidly turning into canons. If # 8220 ; fume and mirrors # 8221 ; had enveloped the IMF bundle in the first topographic point, the same applies two-fold to its failure. As an functionary of the Group of Seven industrialized economic systems told Stephen Fidler of the Financial Times in October 1998, # 8220 ; There is one thing worse than failure and that # 8217 ; s failure that takes a batch of your money and credibleness with it. # 8221 ; So it was barely surprising that the IMF declared rapidly in January 1999, after the value of the existent had collapsed, that the # 8220 ; float # 8221 ; of the existent was the best policy for Brazil, even though the # 8220 ; care of the current exchange rate government # 8221 ; had been a cardinal board of its bailout bundle announced the old November. Or that the R $ 28 billion Brazil finally cut from outgos under force per unit area of the currency crisis was hailed in Washington as grounds of conformity with IMF directives, despite the fact that these figures had been predicated on # 8220 ; care # 8221 ; of the existent # 8217 ; s value. But one time once more, no 1 wanted to look excessively closely in the involvements of restoring # 8220 ; assurance, # 8221 ; much less talk about it. The world was that the old figures were shot. U.S. Treasury secretary Robert Rubin had said of the bailout bundle in November, # 8220 ; This should make it. # 8221 ; It had non. George Soros told the one-year assemblage of worthies at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in February 1999 that what Brazil needed from the international fiscal community was a # 8220 ; wall of money # 8221 ; -in add-on, presumptively to the $ 41.5 billion already committed by the IMFled bundle. On March 8, in Washington the IMF announced yet another memoranda of understanding with the Brazilian authorities. Cardoso, it said, promised to cut down Brazil # 8217 ; s public debt ratio to GDP ; addition excesss ; increase monetary values of domestic energy ; cut down federal outgos ; # 8220 ; retrench # 8221 ; with regard to province employees ; privatise more province companies and province Bankss ; promote the # 8220 ; voluntary committednesss of foreign Bankss # 8221 ; ; and publish more bonds. On the same twenty-four hours in Rio de Janeiro, Cardoso, speech production at the Superior War College, was more equivocal, particularly about the denationalization of Petrobras, the province crude oil company, and other cardinal province endeavors. # 8220 ; If this is utile to excite the markets, so be it. But it does no good for Brazil to fantasy about paths that are non needed, # 8221 ; he told the generals whose societal security parts he had merely promised the IMF he would increase. Possibly he assumed the generals did non read English-or Wall Street bargainers Portuguese-a unsafe given in the age of the cyberspace. But looking at Brazil # 8217 ; s black chances, Soros knows of what he speaks. With involvement rates at 45 per centum, rising prices in the month of February making 7.65 per centum, and 2 million unemployed between the ages of 15 and 24 in Greater Sao Paulo, his former plus director, Arminio Fraga, now Brazil # 8217 ; s Central Bank president, to whom the state # 8217 ; s economic policy has been mostly ceded, will hold his custodies full. So excessively will the # 8220 ; Three Marketeers # 8221 ; if Brazil fails to convert flighty investors that it is back on path, if it is forced to fall back to capital controls, or even defaults, as the twelvemonth progresses, and Western taxpayers finally wake up to the manner their revenue enhancements have been gambled on a mission impossible.

The Problem of Evil Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

The Problem of Evil - Essay Example There are people with numerous doubts, but others hold on to their faith in God. The paper establishes a discussion of the topic though a description, analysis and evaluation of arguments by various philosophers, and it will also establish the stance of the paper concerning the topic. Emmanuel Levinas is one of the philosophers who asserts that evil influences people into doing the wrong things; thus, he seeks to develop a discussion that accounts for evil. In fact, his argument is based on the role of rationality through the propagation of evil, which seems to be underestimated (Katz, 2005). Moreover, he argues that evil is infused in everyday transformation of temptations that are forbidden concerning impulse of good. Furthermore, his approach to the problem of evil is based on the discount of the conventional perception of theodicy that is considered a justification or rationalization of evil along with suffering inflicted on people. The other philosopher is Morilyn McCord Adams w ith an argument that the problem of evil relates to problem of reconciling existence of horrendous evils with God’s existence, which is suitable for people. In fact, Adams offers proposals as solutions of the problems, whereby she appeals to various forms of intimacy with God. Furthermore, this intimacy is focused on participants of horrendous evils (Earl, 2011). ... However, Kant fails to clarify the propensity of evil; thus, there is need to focus on interpretation of the propensity of evil and association with claims of evil of humanity (Duncan, 2011). Nevertheless, there are features that distinguish interpretation of the issue, whereby there are commentators who have ignorance of the issue. Moreover, there is serious analogy drawn by Kant concerning the propensity of evil and addiction. In this case, Kant has plausible argument regarding the assertion of human race, and it is reasonable. 2. Description and analysis of philosophers' views Levinas's views offer a chance of creating a perception of evil in a different light, whereby he considers evil as a disregard of acts and not a destruction of life, and he considered the source of evil to be inability of attuning to other. In fact, this form of evil offers a capacity of detachment from humanity, whereby people fail to see their responsibility. Therefore, this leads to an assertion that ther e is a precondition of other forms of evil. On the other hand, Levinas raises claims that indicate that evil makes people stand suffering, whereby one may seek to invert the relationship between suffering and evil. Furthermore, he poses a rejection of the conception of suffering, whereby he considers suffering to be a substantial component of the meaning of human life. Adams focuses on worry associated with respect to horrendous evil concerning the way God would defeat horrendous evil, which is in the context of participant’s lifetime. In fact, she argues that God would be supporting good people suffering from horrendous evil, thereby allowing their lives to subdue to evil (Swinburne, 2012). Therefore, her

Innovation and Technology Management - Long Tail Essay

Innovation and Technology Management - Long Tail - Essay Example rd to the explosion of online commerce and distribution is that this new distribution medium is changing the way products and services are consumed, away from the traditional model of mass consumption that is premised on scarcity of distribution resources and the need for hits to keep the markets for all kinds of goods and services viable and humming via a reliance on hits. In the new distribution paradigm, there is no additional cost to keeping non-hit products in the inventory, especially with regard to electronic goods such as music and books, and that pioneering companies in the new distribution channels, such as Amazon and Netflix, as well as Apple for music, are finding out that non-hit music, books and movies kept in stock and easily procured by specific niche consumers have come to constitute a steady stream of on-going business, This is to the extent that in some cases, the cumulative sales of these so-called long-tail products and services have come to account for a large p ortion of the total sales of these firms, dwarfing or becoming comparable to the sales of the hits products and services that used to account for all the sales. This is a new business reality that is the result of the online commerce revolution itself, and promises to be a very profitable new reality for those who know how to capitalize on the knowledge and implications of the long tail (Anderson 2004). The literature has come to unearth a large number of phenomena in the business world relating to the long tail, even as the term itself has come to be associated with the returns that can be had from keeping goods in stock for those items that are not in large demand but whose costs of distribution, marketing, warehousing, storage and merchandising are low enough that those costs are offset by marginal sales. Statistically too, the implication of the long tail concept is that there is money to be made within that area of the probability distribution for a population lying at the tails

Four Principles of Individual Decision Making Assignment

Four Principles of Individual Decision Making - Assignment Example But in order to purchase a television we have no other way, but to give up some money. In economic terms it is said that â€Å"There is no such things as a free lunch†. The second principle says that the cost of something is what we give up to get it. For example, consider a person forced to give up $ 200 for purchasing a television the cost of that television would be $ 200. If another person spends $ 300 on an advanced television the cost of that television would be $ 300. Suppose a person exchanges a television for a mobile phone, the cost of the television and the mobile phone would be equal. In short, cost of a commodity is determined by the sacrifice we did to achieve it or gain it. The third principle says that whenever rational people purchase something they will think of the margins they may get. In other words rational individuals compare the marginal benefits and the marginal costs before taking a purchasing decision. Suppose a person think of purchasing some gold as an investment. The prices of gold goes on increasing at present and a rational person know that if he invests in gold now, he will get more benefits in the future. At the same time he has another option of investing the money as term deposits in banks. But the marginal benefits received from banks as interests might be less than the marginal benefits gets from the gold investment. In other words the decision to select one alternative over other depends on the marginal benefits associated with both of them. The fourth principle says that people may respond to incentives. For example, buy one get one free is a common sales strategy adopted by many manufacturers. When we go to shopping, we often see advertisements like that. A person visiting a shopping mall for purchasing a particular brand of shirt may change his decision if he sees the advertisement of another branded shirt in which they offer one free shirt of same quality for every purchase of a new shirt from them. Thus incentives may often influence the decision making of individuals.  

Esophagram Barium Swallow Analysis

Esophagram Barium Swallow Analysis Two common radiographic procedures of the upper GI system involving the administration of contrast media are the esophagram, or barium swallow, as it is sometimes referred to, and the upper GI series. Each of these procedures is described in detail, beginning with the esophagram. This examination is used for the patient who have high dysphagia or definite oesophageal symptoms, or have quite often had a normal OGD but are still symptomatic, quite often a motility disorder may be the cause. Esophagram or barium swallow, is the common radiographic procedure or examination of the pharynx and esophagus, utilizing radiopaque contrast medium may be used. The purpose of an esophagram is to study radiographically the form and function of the swallowing aspects of the pharynx and esophagus. No major contraindications exist for esophagrams except possible sensitivity to the contrast media used. the technologist should determine whether the patient has a history of sensitivity to barium sulfate or water soluble contrast media. Known aspiration during ingestion (although this can be overcome by using non-ionic water soluble contrast). The contrast agent for barium swallow is barium sulphate suspension 250% w/v or water soluble contrast medium. Barium sulphate are, high atomic number, not soluble in water, used to coat the lining of organs, supplied in different thicknesses. Used in esophogram, UGI, Small Bowel, Lower GI or BE. History of barium sulphate is starting with, lead substrate-toxic, bismuth subnitrate-toxic, thorium-radioactive, barium sulphte-inert(goes in and comes out the same not absorbed). Barium sulphate mixture are contraindicated if any chance exists that the mixture might escape into the peritoneal cavity. This escape may occur through a perforated viscus or during surgery that follos the radiographic procedure. in either of these two cases, water soluble, iodinated contrast media should be used. Two example of this type gastrografin and Gastroview. Both of these water soluble contrast agent can be easily removed by aspiration before or during surgery. if any of this water-soluble material escape into the peritoneal cavity, the body can readily absorb it. Barium sulfate, on the other hand, is not absorbed. One drawnback to the water soluble materials is their bitter taste. Although these iodinated contrast media sometimes are mixed w ith carbonated soft drinks to mask the taste, they often are used as is or diluted with water. The patient should be forewarned that the taste may be slightly bitter. The technologist should be aware that water soluble contrast agents travel through the GI tract faster than barium sulfate. The shorter transit time of water soluble contrast agents should be kept in mind if delayed images of the stomach of duodenum are ordered. If there is any query that the patient may aspirate, the initial swallow is best carried out using a water-soluble contrast medium, although aspiration of barium has been considered by some to be relatively harmless. Aspiration may not be suspected but unsuspected silent aspiration may be found. The more common pathologic indications for an esophagram procedure suchas, achalasia also term cardiospasm, is a motor disorder of the oesophagus in which peristalsis is reduced along the distal two thirds of the esophagus. Achalasia is evident at the esophagogastric s phincter because of its inability to relax during swallowing. The thoracic esophagus may also lose its normal peristaltic activity become dilated (megaesophagus). Video and rapid digital fluoroscopies are most helpful in diagnosis of achalasia. Anatomic anomalies may be congenital or caused by disease, such as cancer of the esophagus. Patients suffering from a stroke often develop impaired swallowing mechanisms. certain foods and contrast agents are administered during the examination to evaluate swallowing patterns. A speech pathologist may witness the study to better understand the speech swallowing patterns of the patients. Video and digital fluoroscopy are used during these studies. Barretts esophagus, or barrette syndrome, is the replacement of the normal squamos epithelium with columnar-lined epithelium ulcer tissue in the lower oesophagus. This replacement may produce a structure of the distal oesophagus. In advanced cases, the development of a peptic ulcer in the distal esop hagus may occurs. The esophagram may demonstrate subtle tissue change in the esophagus, but nuclear medicine is the modality of choice for this condition. the patient is injected with technetium 99m pertechnetate to demonstrate the shift in tissue types in the esophagus. Carcinoma of the oesophagus includes one of the most common malignancies of the oesophagus, adenocarcinoma. advanced symptoms include dysphagia (difficulty in swallowing) and localized pain during meals and bleeding. Other tumors of the oesophagus include carcinosarcoma, which often produces a large, irregular polyp, and pseudocarcinoma. Dysphagia is difficulty in swallowing. This difficulty may be due to a congenital or acquired condition, a trapped bolus of food, paralysis of the pharyngeal or esophageal muscle, or inflammation. Narrowing or an enlarged, flaccid appearance of the esophagus may be seen during the esophagram, depending on the cause of the dysphagia. Video and digital fluoroscopy are the modalities of choice. Esophagram and endoscopy are performed to detect these tumors. The esophagram may demonstrate atropic changes in the mucosa due to the invasion of the tumor as well as stricture. Because the esophagus is empty most of the time, patients need no preparation for an esophagram only, all clothing and anything metallic between the mouth and the waist should be removed, and the patient should wear a hospital gown. Before the fluoroscopic procedure a pertinent history should be taken and the examination carefully explained to the patient. The first part of an esophagrams involves fluoroscopy with a positive-contrast medium. The examination room should be clean, tidy and appropriately stocked before the patient is escorted to the room. The appropriate amount and type of contrast medium should be ready. esophagrams generally use both thin and thick barium. Additional items useful in the detection of a radiolucent foreign body are cotton balls soaked in thin barium, barium pills or gelatine capsules filled with BaSO4, marshmallows. After swallowing any one of these three substance, the patient is asked to swallow an additional thin barium mixture, because the esophagram begins with the table in the vertical position, the footboard should be in place and tested for security. lead aprons, compression paddle, and lead gloves should be provided for the radiologist, as well as aprons for all other personnel in the room. proper radiation methods must be observed at all times during fluoroscopy. With the room prepared and the patient ready, the patient and radiologist are introduced and the patientis history and the reason for the exam discussed. The fluoroscopic examination usually begins with the general survey of the patients chest, including heart, lungs and diaphragm, and the abdomen. During fluoroscopy, the technologists duties, in general, are to follow the radiologists instructions, assist the patient as needed, and expedite the procedure in any manner possible, because the examination is begun in the upright or erect position, a cup of thin barium is placed in the patients left hand close to the left shoulder. The patient then is instructed to follow the radiologists instructions concerning how much to drink and when. The radiologist observes the flow of barium with the fluoroscope. Swallowing (deglutition) of thin barium is observed with the patient in various positions. Similar positions may be used while the patient swallows thick barium. The used of thick barium allows better visualization of mucosal patterns and lesion within the esophagus. The type of barium mixture to be used, however is determined by the radiologist. After the upright studies, horizontal and trendelenburg positions with thick and thin barium may follow. The pharynx and cervical esophag us are usually studied fluoroscopically with the spot films, whereas the main portion of the esophagus down to the stomach is studied both with fluoroscopy and with post fluoroscopy overhaed radiograph. the diagnosis of possible esophageal reflux or regurgitation or gastric contents may occur during fluoroscopy or an esophagram. One or more of the following procedures may be performed to detect esophageal reflux. First, breathing exercise the various breathing exercises are all designed to increase both the intrathoracic and the intraabdominal pressures. The most common breathing exercise in the valsalva maneuver. The patient is asked to take a deep breath and, while holding the breath in, to bear down as though trying to move the bowels. This maneuver forces air against the closed glottis.  A modified valsalva maneuver is accomplished as the patient pinches off the nose, closes the mouth, and tries to blow the nose. The checks should expand outward as though the patient were blow ing up a balloon. A Mueller manoeuvre can also be performed as the patient exhaled and then tries to inhale against a closed glottis. With both methods, the increase of intraabdominal pressure may produced the reflux of ingested barium that would confirm the presence of esophageal reflux. The radiologist carefully observes the esophagogastric junction during these manoeuvres. Second is water test that done with the patient in the supine position and turned up slightly on the left side. This slightly LPO position fills the fundus with barium. The patients are asked to swallow a mouthful of water through a straw. Under fluoroscopy the radiologists closely observe the esophgogastric junction. A positive water test occurs when significant amounts of barium regurgitate into the esophagus from the stomach. A compression paddle can be placed under the patient in the prone position and inflated as needed to provide pressure to the stomach region. The radiologist can demonstrate the obscure esophagogastric jun ction during this process to detect possible esophageal reflux. The toe-touch manoeuvre is also performed to study possible regurgitation into the esophagus from the stomach. Under fluoroscopy the cardiac orifice is observed as the patient bends over and touches the toes. Esophageal reflux and hiatal hernias are sometimes demonstrated with the toe-touch manoeuvre. If the patient is a female, then a menstrual history must be obtained. Irradiation of an early pregnancy is one of the most hazardous situations in diagnostic radiography. X-ray examinations such as the upper GI series that include the pelvis and uterus in the primary beam and include fluoroscopy should only be done on a pregnant female when absolutely necessary. In general, abdominal radiographs of a known pregnancy should be delayed at least until the third trimester or, if patients condition allows (as determined by the physician), until after the pregnancy. This waiting period is especially important if fluoroscopy, which greatly increase patient exposure is involved. Potential difficulties that may arise out of a Barium Swallow is discomfort of air insufflation. Poor tolerance of swallowed gas mixture can make for poor stomach and oesophageal distension. Where buscopam injection is used to relax bowel for better pictures, patients may experience some blurring of vision.  Tendency  of barium to cause constipation in the days following the procedure. Need for an interpreter in non-English speaking patients. Disadvantages of Barium Swallow Useful for functional assessment allows the assessment of motility, reflux and distension. In comparison to gastroscopy, barium swallow is safer. Available resource. It is difficult to compare costs between barium studies and endoscopy and they may be of comparable costs. However is some centres barium studies are much more accessible to GPs and may be arranged with much less delay for the patient than gastroscopy. Not as comprehensive or accurate method for diagnosis of some conditions in comparison to gastroscopy. Not able to take samples or provide treatment as part of the procedure. Radiation exposure. Dose is 2 3 millisieverts compared with chest film 0.06 millisieverts and background radiation of 2millisieverts per year. Users of ionising radiation are required to inform all women of child bearing age about the risks of radiation in pregnancy. Pregnancy is a relative contraindication to the use of radiation but generally in the context of the barium enema the urgency is such that can delay or choose alternative investigation.

William Faulkners Use of Shakespeare Essay -- William Faulkner

William Faulkner's Use of Shakespeare Throughout his career William Faulkner acknowledged the influence of many writers upon his work--Twain, Dreiser, Anderson, Keats, Dickens, Conrad, Balzac, Bergson, and Cervantes, to name only a few--but the one writer that he consistently mentioned as a constant and continuing influence was William Shakespeare. Though Faulkner’s claim as a fledgling writer in 1921 that â€Å"[he] could write a play like Hamlet if [he] wanted to† (FAB 330) may be dismissed as an act of youthful posturing, the statement serves to indicate that from the beginning Shakespeare was the standard by which Faulkner would judge his own creativity. In later years Faulkner frequently acknowledged Shakespeare as a major inspiration and influence, once noting, â€Å"I have a one-volume Shakespeare that I have just about worn out carrying around with me† (FIU 67). Faulkner’s recorded interviews and conversations contain references to a number of Shakespeare's works and characters, inc luding Hamlet, Macbeth, Henry IV, Henry V, A Midsummer Night's Dream, Romeo and Juliet, the sonnets, Falstaff, Prince Hal, Lady Macbeth, Bottom, Ophelia, and Mercutio. In 1947 he told an Ole Miss English class that Shakespeare’s work provides â€Å"a casebook on mankind,† adding, â€Å"if a man has a great deal of talent he can use Shakespeare as a yardstick† (Webb and Green 134). In one of his last interviews shortly before his death in 1962, Faulkner said of all writers, â€Å"We yearn to be as good as Shakespeare† (LIG 276). The parallels in the lives and careers of the two writers are remarkably striking. Both were born in provincial small towns but found their eventual success in metropolitan cities, Shakespeare in London and Faulkner in New York and... ...n August: Faulkner's Structural Motifs." Master's thesis, Southeast Missouri State University, 1995. Greenblatt, Stephen, and others, eds. The Norton Shakespeare. New York: W.W. Norton, 1997. Gwynn, Frederick L., and Joseph L. Blotner, eds. Faulkner in the University: Class Conferences at the University of Virginia, 1957-1958. Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 1959. Cited as FIU. Meriwether, James B., ed. Essays, Speeches, and Public Letters by William Faulkner. New York: Random House, 1965. Cited as ESPL. --------, and Michael Milgate, eds. Lion in the Garden:  Interviews with William Faulkner, 1926-1962. New York: Random House, 1968. Cited as LIG. Rowse, A. L. William Shakespeare: A Biography. New York: Harper and Row, 1963. Webb, James W., and A. Wigfall Green, eds. William Faulkner of Oxford. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1965.

Amazon Business Model Essay

Overview: Amazon.com was founded in 1994, it started by selling books online. As it grew, the company started offering various products and services. Some goods include: DVDs, videos, electronics, camera and photography, clothing apparels, shoes, and so forth. Other retailers have merged with Amazon.com to offer diverse quality of items based on different degrees of usage, such as new, refurbished, and used items. The company’s headquarter is in Seattle, Washington. It has six global websites that serves customers that are based in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada, and Japan. Their website features: e-mail order verification, customer review on products, and one-click shopping. Vision: According to Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.com, they want to build one of the most customer-centric company in the world. A place where people can find everything they want to buy online (Amazon.com: the Hidden Empire, 2011). Mission: â€Å"Work Hard, Have Fun, and Make History.† The company’s core value is based upon customer obsession. With the help of innovation and technology, they want to take lead in customer care (Fast Moving Consumer Goods, 2009). Business Model A business model is a conceptual framework which expresses the underlying economic logic and system. It proves how a business can appropriate costs, make money, and deliver value to customers. As a result, this segment will introduce this company’s model, and how over the course of several years, it has managed to adapt their model to keep itself ahead (Business Model Definition, N.D). Business Strategy: Business Foundation: The foundation of Amazon.com was built on the ability to transform. It has proved that when opportunities arise to serve new or existing customers, it manages to adapt new business models to exploit it. The company is able to launch and run new businesses while extracting value on existing ones. Accordingly, they will satisfy their customer’s need no matter what, even if it is foreign to their current model. â€Å"You cannot stop at what you are good at.† Jeff Bezos says, â€Å"You have to ask what your customers need and want, and then, no matter how hard it is, you better get good at those things.† (Jeff Bezos Biography, 2001). The leader of Amazon was always interested in building an online retailer. The business model was not uniquely customized to the peculiarity of the Internet, nor was it predominantly innovative as it was based upon an online catalog operation. He saw himself improving on the traditional brick-and-mortar stores saying, â€Å"Look at e-retailing. The key trade that we make is that we trade real estate for technology. Real estate is the key cost of physical retailers. That’s why there’s the old saw: location, location, location. Real estate gets more expensive every year, and technology gets cheaper every year. And it gets cheaper fast.† (Online Extra: Q&A, 2001). However, it was an inexperienced observation when the company assumed that it could expand without making physical investments. Currently, Amazon has invested a large amount of funds into warehouses. Third Party Sellers: After gaining a large amount of profit from their book industry, they began to expand into easily shippable consumer goods. This lead them into two new directions; the first initiative was to host small business as part of the Z-Shop project. The second was partnering with several e-retailers that sold goods that Amazon.com did not. These projects allowed merchants to list up to 3,000 items at cost of 9.99 USD a month (Amazon.com Opens zShops, 1999). Even though this creates competition between Amazon.com and the third party sellers, it gains a percentage of each sale as commission from these merchants. The company obtains information on consumer’s purchasing habits, and create one destination where purchasers enjoy a consistent experience (Chaffey, D., 2012). Competitive Environment As stated previously, Amazon.com is an e-market, and in order to analyze the competitive environment both SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) and Porter’s Five Forces will be discussed. SWOT Analysis Strengths: As of January 2010, Amazon.com has three times the Internet sales revenue of the runner up, Staples. By offering a large amount of varied categories through its website and other international ones (Amazon.co.uk, Amazon.co.fr, and so on), it has managed to grow to a customer based company with over 30 million people. In addition, the online retail format enables the company to reduce costs of managing inventory (Amazon.com; online bookstore, 2008). Due to Amazon.com building their business model around their customer’s ever-changing tastes and preferences, they were able to avoid the dot-com bust – a period between 2000-2002, where many dot-com companies went bankrupt (Dot-com bust, 2012). Amazon.com has successfully managed to make its customers to feel that anything they could possibly want could be found on their website. Additionally, its products are marketed at a competitive price. Another important factor is their speedy delivery with their usage of UPS and FedEx (United States) and Royal Mail (United Kingdom). The company also caters for people that prefer online shopping with extra services such as Amazon Prime – a service with a yearly payment, customers are eligible for free next day delivery. Even though Amazon.com is known to be an online seller of most things, it still excels in its original market of book selling. Evidence of such is that students are more likely to use the marketplace to purchase or sell used university books at a fair value. Weaknesses: From a financial standpoint, Amazon.com’s goal of being a customer-centric company that wants to gain a market share rather than profit may not be appealing to investors. Also by relying on third party sellers to provide products to customers, there is the risk that the seller may fail to commit to their sale. Customers will most likely blame Amazon; therefore, damaging Amazon.com’s reputation more than the third party. Another disadvantage is that prices may differ due to geographical location and economy, for example a FILCO Keyboard is 100USD in the in the States; whereas, in the United Kingdom, it is 100GBP. (Amazon.com; online bookstore, 2008). Opportunities: There is an opportunity to expand to other emerging countries such as China, India, and the Middle East. Not only does Amazon have opportunities to expand its base to other geographical locations around the world, it also has the chance to provide many local shops to sell its products abroad through their website. There will be an incentive for retailers to post products on Amazon’s website to increase their sales around the globe, as a result, the company will generate more revenue through third party sales. In addition, it is also possible to open retail stores or provide its own goods such as the Kindle Fire to well-known and established retailers. These suppliers could then be paid a small commission fee to have them display their goods in a proper showcase. This will allow customers to physically interact with the company’s gadgets similar to an Apple store. They could also provide tech support to any problems that may arise. Threats: Currently Amazon.com faces the threat of 15 court cases in regards to patent infringement. Moreover, international issues with their foreign websites may occur, such as export and import restrictions, taxes, tariffs, trade barriers, different payment cycles, and political instability. To illustrate, American electronics use different voltages compared to Europeans, which may cause issues to buyers that are unaware; therefore, Amazon must take extra precaution to ensure that customers are fully aware of what they are purchasing. It may also struggle to provide proper customer support to people that have purchased goods abroad. Porter’s Five Forces Threat of New Entrants: It is unlikely that competitors will be able to compete with Amazon.com’s information system. The technology that has been used in their website is unique, such as the One-click shopping. It has been patented to deter their competitors from copying it. Competitors will find it difficult to compete with Amazon’s brand recognition, because they are well-known for selling books online and are fairly established in that market (Analysing Amazon.com, 2006). Bargaining Power of Buyer: Due to a wide variety of choice, the bargaining power is high as customers may choose to buy from other sites rather than Amazon. Although, Amazon.com has been known to price their products lower to compete with other services such as iTunes. Threat of Product Substitute: It may be considered high, because people might prefer to physically visit a store rather than buy it online. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Amazon.com is not allowed to directly purchase electronic products directly from main distributers such as Sony, because of its low cost strategy. On the other hand, in their book sector, the company has opened five automated distribution centers located within the United States. This lessens dependence on their main distributer, Ingram (Analysing Amazon.com, 2006). Industry Rivalry: Amazon.com has little competition versus websites that sell everything; however, they will have to compete with websites with certain niche for products. For example, competing with Newegg.com with computer parts, iTunes with music, Netflix with movies, Barnes and Nobles for books, and Best-Buy for electronics. Potential Growth through Agility and Adaptation To be regarded as an agile company it must have four characteristics; it must be flexible, adaptable, coordinated, and balanced. The business must have the capability to adjust and adapt in effective ways to environment and market changes. There are three types of agility, one that involves the customers, another with partners, and finally with operations (Marakas, 2011). Consumer Focused Strategy: As previously mentioned, Amazon.com is obsessed with its customer base, the company’s aim is at gaining market share rather than profit. Accordingly, pricing is said to be the primary tool while considering customer’s bargaining power; therefore, adjusting the price of identical goods to correspond to the purchaser’s willingness to pay is a necessity. Amazon.com does not operate in any physical stores; all of its sales occur through its website. The company captures their customers recommendations and comments for site visitors to read, and this is similar to that of a salesperson in a store offering advice on which product to buy. Their website is consistently improved to be personalized and satisfying for customers. It tracks users traffic, the number and duration of visits, what products have been looked at, and so on. Amazon.com then uses all this information to create patterns. It then uses this data promotions and evaluation of goods. Unique and personalized features such as online customer reviews, personalized recommendations, and One-Click ordering, customers truly feel as if their needs are being catered to. Amazon’s website is so technologically advanced, that each customer’s front page would be different from another (Hill, M., N.D). Furthermore, Amazon.com offer its users almost everything due to the vast amount of resources available, such as Amazon.com Auctions, Marketplace (selling of used items), and Z-Shops (third-party sellers). Growth Strategy: In late 2007, Amazon created a subsidiary company called Lab126. Their first product was the Amazon Kindle E-Book Reader. Its business model was so foreign, that it had disrupted the entire industry. In order to be able to launch this product, Amazon became an original equipment manufacturer (OEM). It has linked the Kindle into a digital media platform that used both transaction and subscription based content delivery. Content producers have also partnered up with Amazon to create new content for the Kindle. Even after changing their business model several times, their ability to improve operational efficiencies such as shopping convenience, discount pricing, ease of purchasing, reliability of order fulfillment, and to purchase a large quantity of products from suppliers allowing them to benefit from discounts and offer a wide selection of goods to their customers is the key to sustainable competitive advantage (Kotelnikov, V., N.D). Innovation Strategy: Amazon has redesigned Android 3.0, as a result, The Kindle Fire has a clean, user-friendly home screen without random widgets scattered within the interface. The company has spent several years building up their services such as their cloud music player, video service, Kindle e-books, Android App Store; therefore, the tablet has a vast amount of content. As a result, consumers will know exactly what to look for in the device, and they will know where to get its content. The price point of 199 USD – compared to 269USD for the Xoom, 379USD for the Galaxy Tab, and 499USD for the iPad (A Tablet Buyers Guide, 2012) – is a price consumers are willing to purchase and weigh off the opportunity cost. It will not affect a large portion of their disposable income; therefore, they are more likely to purchase it for their kids. It is much more appealing to purchase an item that is practical at a price of 199USD in comparison to other practical goods at >350USD price range. The objective of the Kindle Fire is mainly about media consumption. Amazon has supplied this device at a low price point, in return, customers are being hooked into Amazon’s digital distribution ecosystem. The main purpose of this is to buyers to purchase high margin items such as the Kindle Apps and E-Books. The Kindle Fire will become a platform for selling digital content, and its distributer will most likely subsidize some hardware to be able to sell more content in the long run. This is a similar approach to what they have done with the E-Reader Kindles. Adaptation Amazon.com has managed to adapt its markets to current events by creating promotional sales that are equivalent to specific dates of the year; for example, Black Friday, Christmas, and Veteran’s Day. They have daily, weekly, and monthly deals constantly running throughout the year. The company’s website places recent products that are popular on their front page, in order to have people notice it. Furthermore, Amazon.com combats competition by allowing sellers to open their stores for a small fee of 9.99 USD a month, and taking a small percent free from supplier’s sales. Conclusion The essay first introduced Amazon’s business model. This model involved business strategy, foundation, and third party sellers. It then analyses Amazon’s competitive environment through SWOT and Porter’s Five Forces. To conclude, the company has unambiguous potential growth from agility and adaptation. Amazon.com has created one of the most unique e-commerce online store by having a variety of products as well as a huge customer base that, to this day, is steadily rising. Amazon.com is a behemoth e-commerce retailer, only time will tell what wonders and innovations this company will bring in the future. Bibliography A Tablet Buyers Guide. 2012. [ONLINE] Available at: http://community.digitalmediaacademy.org/15165-ipad-2-vs-kindle-fire-xoom-others-a-tablet-buyers-guide. [Accessed 20 November 2012]. Amazon.com Opens zShops – Direct Marketing News. 1999. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.dmnews.com/Amazon.comcom-opens-zshops/article/62986/. [Accessed 14 November 2012]. Amazon.com: the Hidden Empire. 2011. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.slideshare.net/faberNovel/amazoncom-the-hidden-empire. 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